[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 27 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 28 09:30:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 27 September. There is still one sunspot region (Region
2597) located at S14W48 and it produced one weak C-class flare
(27/0805) and three B-class flares during the last 24 hours.
The two day outlook (28-29 September) is for very low solar activity
with chance of C-class flares, possibly from Region 2597. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery The solar wind speeds were steady around 500 km/s from
27/0000 UT to 27/1600 UT and thereafter continued to trend towards
strongly enhanced levels. The current solar wind speed is around
700 km/s. These enhancements in the solar wind speeds are due
to the arrival of high speed streams from a large positive polarity
coronal hole now taking geoeffective position on the solar disk.
The north south component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) fluctuated between -10 and +5 nT. Bt had been steady near
10 nT for most of the UT day and has declined to a weaker value
of 5 nT during last few hours of the UT day. The two day outlook
(28-29 September) is for the solar winds to further enhance as
the coronal effects are expected to persist for few more days.
In the previous three rotation, the daily mean solar wind speeds
were greater than 500 km/s for at least 6 consecutive days during
the passage of this coronal hole. Similar effects are expected
in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 22 32354523
Cocos Island 16 32234521
Darwin 21 21354523
Townsville 22 32354523
Learmonth 29 42355622
Alice Springs 22 32354523
Norfolk Island 15 2135332-
Gingin 24 42254533
Camden 24 32364423
Canberra 16 21353422
Launceston 27 32364533
Hobart 25 32364433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
Macquarie Island 47 42476632
Casey 29 44344633
Mawson 73 74454854
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 44
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 3432 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 50 Storm Levels
29 Sep 50 Storm Levels
30 Sep 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 25 September
and is current for 26-28 Sep. The geomagnetic activity over the
Australian region reached minor storm levels on UT day 27 September.
The Australian region Dst index dipped to a low of -79 nT at
near 27/0900 UT. These fluctuations in geomagnetic conditions
were due to solar wind speeds been in excess of 500 km/s combined
with short episodes of southward Bz. The two day outlook (28-29
September) is for the geomagnetic activity to reach storm levels
since very strong solar wind speeds of greater than 700 km/s
are expected to emanate from the large positive polarity coronal
hole now at geoeffective location on the solar disk. The storm
intensities are expected to be slightly stronger than that observed
in the previous two rotation (previous rotation Ap was 32) associated
with this coronal hole because the earth-sun coupling efficiency
is highest during the equinox periods. Thus there is strong chance
that aurora may be visible on the local nights of 28 and 29 September
from Tasmania and some parts of Victoria, Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Poor Poor
29 Sep Normal Poor Poor
30 Sep Normal Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were near predicted monthly values over
the equatorial regions and strongly depressed in the mid and
high latitudes regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for
today, 28 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Sep 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 26 September
and is current for 26-28 Sep. Observed MUF's were strongly depressed
over the southern Australian and Antarctic regions, and near
the monthly predicted levels for the equatorial and northern
Australian regions. These strong depression in the high latitudes
and enhancements in the low latitudes are associated with the
observed minor storm conditions. MUFs over the high latitudes
regions are expected to remain strongly depressed for the next
three days (28 - 30 September) as active conditions associated
with the coronal hole are expected to persist for a few more
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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