[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 September 16 issued 2351 UT on 26 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 27 09:51:01 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 26 September. There is currently one sunspot region (Region
2597) located at S14W35 and it produced 3 weak B-class flare
during the last 24 hours. The two day outlook (27-28 September)
is for very low solar activity with some chance of C-class flares.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery The solar wind speeds continue to trend towards enhanced
level, increasing from approximately 400 km/s at beginning of
the UT day to near 470 km/s at 26/2300 UT. The north south component
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) had 2 notable sustained
southward periods, first from 0900UT-1900UT ranging between -3nT
and -10nT and then from 2200UT to 2300UT ranging from -8nT to
-10nT. Meanwhile Bt varied between 5 nT and 12 nT. The outlook
for today, 27 September, is for the solar winds to remain mostly
near these moderately enhanced level. From 28 September, the
solar winds are expected to further enhance in response to the
approaching high speed streams from a large positive polarity
coronal hole taking geoeffective position on the solar disk.
In the previous three rotation, the daily mean solar wind speeds
were greater than 500 km/s for at least 6 consecutive days during
the passage of this coronal hole. Similar effects are expected
in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet to active
levels
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 12 22233333
Cocos Island 9 22223232
Darwin 11 22233323
Townsville 12 22233333
Learmonth 13 22234333
Alice Springs 12 22233333
Norfolk Island 9 22223232
Gingin 13 22234333
Camden 12 22233333
Canberra 7 11223222
Launceston 16 22334433
Hobart 14 22334333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
Macquarie Island 29 23455543
Casey 17 34333234
Mawson 39 54424374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 21 4404 3354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 16 Active
28 Sep 32 Active to Minor Storm
29 Sep 36 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 25 September
and is current for 26-28 Sep. The geomagnetic activity over the
Australian region were mostly unsettled and at times reached
active levels on UT day 26 September. The Australian region Dst
index dipped to a low of -46 nT at 26/1427 UT. These fluctuations
in geomagnetic conditions are due to moderately enhanced solar
wind speeds combined with the prolonged period of southward Bz.
The outlook for today (27 September) is for the geomagnetic activity
to be generally at unsettled levels and at times reaching active
levels in response to moderately enhanced solar wind speeds.
The outlook for 28 and 29 September is for mostly active geomagnetic
conditions and at times reaching moderate storm levels since
very strong solar wind speeds of greater than 500 km/s are expected
to emanate from a positive polarity coronal hole soon taking
geoeffective location on the solar disk. The aurora may be visible
on the local nights of 28 and 29 September from Tasmania and
some parts of Victoria, Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
29 Sep Normal Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: Observed MUF's near predicted monthly values over the
last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for today,
27 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
28 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were between slightly
depressed to predicted monthly values for most regions over the
last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach Active
levels with possible Minor Storm periods from 28 September due
to recurrent coronal hole effects. MUFs are expected to remain
near monthly predicted levels for the next two days (27 and 28
September) and then expected to slightly depress on 29 September
in response to the forecasted active conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 12.3 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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