[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 September 16 issued 2350 UT on 25 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 26 09:50:58 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
2597 (S14W21) the source of the largest event, a C1.3 flare at
1914UT. There were no earth directed CME's observed in the available
imagery. The solar wind speed was ~360km/s from 00UT to 12UT
after which it has increased slightly to be 400km/s at the time
of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) underwent
numerous sustained southward excursions throughout the UT day,
from 00UT to 03UT reaching -7.3nT, 0900UT to 1130UT with a maximum
of -10.2nT for the UT day and from 1600UT to 1930UT reaching
-9.2nT. Bz has been southward since 2040UT, currently at -5nT.
An increase in solar wind speed is expected on 26Sep and is expected
to be elevated for the next 3 days due recurrent coronal hole
effects. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low over
the next 3 days with a chance of weak C class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 22132233
Cocos Island 11 22132243
Darwin 9 22132332
Townsville 12 23133333
Learmonth 11 32132333
Alice Springs 9 22132332
Norfolk Island 10 23133232
Gingin 11 32122243
Camden 11 23133233
Canberra 7 12032232
Launceston 14 23143333
Hobart 12 23142233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
Macquarie Island 14 23054222
Casey 15 24332243
Mawson 38 66321346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0000 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 20 Active
27 Sep 25 Active
28 Sep 22 Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours, with Active periods observed for high latitude stations
due to sustained southward Bz. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be Active for the next 3 days as the solar wind is influenced
by recurrent coronal hole activity that on the previous 2 rotations
has produced Active conditions with Minor Storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
28 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's near predicted monthly values over the
last 24 hours. Increased geomagnetic activity for 26Sep-28Sep
is expected to result in depressed MUFs for mid latitudes and
poor/disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Sep 10 Depressed 10%-30%/near predicted monthly values
28 Sep 10 Depressed 10%-30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's near predicted monthly values for most
regions over the last 24 hours with notable depressions for Equatorial
regions and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic stations
due to increased geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic activity is
expected to reach Active levels with possible Minor Storm periods
for 26Sep-28Sep due to recurrent coronal hole effects resulting
in depressed MUFs of 10%-30% for Southern AUS/NZ and Northern
AUS regions and poor ionospheric support for Antarctic stations
over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 258000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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