[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 29 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 30 09:30:23 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 81/22 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 29 September. The only active sunspot region (Region 2597)
will soon rotate to the rearward side of the sun. Thus, the two
day outlook (30 September and 1 October) is for very low solar
activity with only slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The
solar wind speeds were steady at very high levels of near 700
km/s throughout the UT day. These enhanced solar wind speeds
are due to high speed streams emanating from the large positive
polarity coronal hole. The north-south component of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between -8 and +8 nT, and was
predominately southwards from 29/0500 UT to 29/1500 UT. Bt ranged
between 5 and 9 nT, and had been exhibited a gradual declining
trend starting from 29/0600 UT. The current Bt magnitude is near
5 nT. The two day outlook (30 September and 1 October) is for
the solar winds to remain at these enhanced levels as the coronal
effects persist. Expect a slow declining trend in solar wind
speeds from 2 October as the coronal effects begin to wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Unsettled to
Major Storm
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 25 33464422
Darwin 20 23454422
Townsville 22 33454432
Learmonth 27 33455532
Alice Springs 21 33454422
Norfolk Island 17 33353322
Gingin 26 33355532
Camden 27 34464422
Canberra 16 23353322
Launceston 36 34474433
Hobart 34 34474422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
Macquarie Island 53 34675642
Casey 23 45443333
Mawson 70 46664576
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 12 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 114 (Major storm)
Canberra 99 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 46
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 39 5535 4564
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 40 Minor Storm
01 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
02 Oct 20 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 29 September
and is current for 29 Sep to 1 Oct. The geomagnetic activity
over the Australian region were mostly at active to minor storm
levels, and briefly reached major storm levels between 29/0800
UT and 29/1000 UT. The Australian region Dst index dipped to
a low of -120 nT at near 29/0920 UT. These fluctuations in geomagnetic
conditions are associated with very strong solar wind speeds
in excess of 700 km/s emanating from a large positive polarity
coronal hole and predominate southwards Bz from 29/0500 UT to
29/1500 UT. The two day outlook (30 September and 1 October)
is for the geomagnetic activity to reach minor storm levels and
at times even reach major storm levels associated with the persisting
very strong solar wind speeds from the coronal hole. The storm
intensities are expected to be slightly stronger than that observed
in the previous two rotations (previous rotation Ap was 32) associated
with this coronal hole because the earth-sun coupling efficiency
is highest during the equinox periods. Thus there is again chance
that aurora may be visible on the local nights of 30 September
from Tasmania and some parts of Victoria, Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Fair Fair-poor Poor
01 Oct Normal Fair Fair-poor
02 Oct Normal Normal-fair Poor
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were near predicted monthly values over
the equatorial regions and strongly depressed in the mid and
high latitudes regions. Similar HF conditions are expected today,
30 September, with chance that the MUF depressions can extend
even into the equatorial regions due to the persistant prolonged
heating of the high latitude ionosphere during this storm.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% throughout the day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 0 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
01 Oct 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Oct 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 29 September
and is current for 29 Sep to 1 Oct. Observed MUF's were strongly
depressed over most Australian regions throughout the UT day
29 September except on the day side for the equatorial Australian
regions. These depression are associated with the observed disturbed
geomagnetic conditions driven by a very large positive polarity
coronal hole. Similar MUF depressions are expected for the next
three days (30 September to 2 October) as active conditions associated
with the coronal hole are expected to persist for few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 669 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 674000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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