[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 23 09:30:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low over the last 24 hours
with region 2595 (around north-western limb) producing several
B-class and five C-class flares, the largest being a C5.6 flare
that peaked at 0547 UT. The effect of the coronal hole further
weakened today (UT day 22 September) as the solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 520 to 440 km/s. The north-south component
of IMF, Bz, stayed close to the normal value, staying slightly
positive during most parts of the UT day today. Solar wind stream
is expected to further weaken over the next 2 days. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low over the next 3 days with a small
chance of C class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 22100000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 22100001
Townsville 2 22101001
Learmonth 3 22210000
Alice Springs 2 22100000
Norfolk Island 1 21100000
Gingin 2 22110000
Camden 2 22100000
Canberra 1 12100000
Launceston 4 23211001
Hobart 1 12100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 12200000
Casey 6 24221000
Mawson 8 43231000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 4223 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 7 Quiet
24 Sep 5 Quiet
25 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day
22 September. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the
next 3 days (23, 24 and 25 September) with a small possibility
of isolated unsettled periods on 23 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUF's stayed near predicted monthly values over the
last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected over
the next three days (23, 24 and 25 September).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF's stayed near predicted monthly values for AUS/NZ
region over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may
be expected for this region over the next three days (23, 24
and 25 September) .
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 539 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 434000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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