[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 September 16 issued 2337 UT on 21 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Sep 22 09:37:09 EST 2016

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep:  86/29

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Sep             23 Sep             24 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low over the last 24 hours 
with region 2593 (N08W30) the source of a C1.6 flare at 1039UT 
and region 2595 on the west limb produced a C1.7 flare at 1151UT. 
There were no earth directed CME's observed. The solar wind speed 
remained elevated at ~610km/s between 00UT-06UT after which it 
began to decreased to be ~510km/s at the time of this report. 
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) fluctuated between 
+/-4nT. Solar wind speed is expected to decline further over 
the next 24-48 hours as the recent coronal hole influence subsides. 
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low over the next 3 days 
with a small chance of a weak C class flare.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   32221001
      Cocos Island         2   22111000
      Darwin               5   32221011
      Townsville           6   32231011
      Learmonth            5   32222001
      Alice Springs        5   32221001
      Norfolk Island       4   32220001
      Gingin               5   31231000
      Camden               6   32231001
      Canberra             3   22120001
      Launceston           8   33232012
      Hobart               6   32231001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     5   22331000
      Casey               14   45332001
      Mawson              21   64432013

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18   5343 2223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Sep     7    Quiet
24 Sep     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal 
in both hemispheres over the last 24 hours for low to mid latitudes. 
Normal-Fair ionospheric support for high latitudes due to elevated 
geomagnetic activity. Mostly Normal conditions expected for Low 
to Mid latitudes over the next 3 days with Normal-Fair conditions 
for high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Sep    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      29
Sep      35
Oct      34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUF's near predicted monthly values for Equatorial/Northern 
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Fair 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions due to recent geomagnetic 
activity. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values with 
occasional depressed periods for Equatorial through to Southern 
AUS/NZ regions for the next 3 days and gradually improving ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 642 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:   579000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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