[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 September 16 issued 2348 UT on 20 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 21 09:48:46 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours
with the largest event being a B3.5 flare from region 2595 (N11W71)
at 0248UT. There were no earth directed CME's observed. The solar
wind speed increased from ~550 km/s at 00UT to ~750KM/s at 11UT
after which it gradually declined to be ~600km/s at the time
of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) began
the UT day with a maximum southward value of -13.6nT at 0023UT
and slowly declined in magnitude until 09UT after which it has
been fluctuating between +/-5nT. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over the next 24 hours due to the influence
of a high speed solar wind stream from a negative polarity coronal
hole. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low over the next
3 days with a small chance of a weak C class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 33331311
Cocos Island 8 32231311
Darwin 10 33331212
Townsville 11 33341211
Learmonth 12 43231322
Alice Springs 9 32331311
Norfolk Island 8 32331211
Gingin 12 43331321
Camden 12 33341311
Canberra 7 32231210
Launceston 15 43342322
Hobart 12 33341311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Sep :
Macquarie Island 19 33462220
Casey 24 45542323
Mawson 42 54443275
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 68 (Active)
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1032 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 12 Unsettled
22 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed remains high, however the likelihood
of strong sustained southward Bz is low. Forecast for 21Sep is
for Unsettled with the slight chance of Active periods. Mostly
Quiet with possible Unsettled periods expected for 22Sep-23Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Sep Normal Normal Fair
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal
in both hemispheres over the last 24 hours for low to mid latitudes
with occasional enhanced MUFs. Fair ionospheric support for high
latitudes due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Mostly Normal
conditions expected for Low to Mid latitudes over the next 3
days. Fair conditions are expected for high latitudes over the
next 24-48 hours due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Occasional enhanced MUF's for Equatorial and Northern
AUS regions over the last 24 hours. Near predicted monthly values
for Southern AUS/NZ regions with occasional depressions. Poor
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions due to elevated geomagnetic
activity. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values with
occasional depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions for
21Sep-22Sep along with disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions. Return to normal HF conditions for the Australian region
for 23Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 11.4 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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