[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 September 16 issued 2350 UT on 19 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 20 09:50:50 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours
with the largest event being a B5.3 flare from region 2592 (N13E16)
at 0742UT. There were no earth directed CME's observed. The solar
wind speed gradually increased from ~350 km/s at 02UT to 420KM/s
at 20UT after which it climbed rapidly to be ~500km/s at the
time of this report. The north south component of the IMF (Bz)
underwent a sustained southward period between 05-09UT of which
Bz averaged -7nT. Bz has been predominantly northward since 09UT.
Btotal was ~10nT from 00UT-16UT after which it increased to be
22nT at 2022UT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over the next 24-48 hours with todays conditions evident of the
anticipated onset of a high speed solar wind stream from a negative
polarity coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low over the next 3 days with a small chance of a weak C class
flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 11123212
Cocos Island 6 11222222
Darwin 7 11223222
Townsville 8 21223223
Learmonth 7 21123222
Alice Springs 6 11123212
Norfolk Island 5 21122112
Gingin 6 11123212
Camden 7 11123213
Canberra 5 00123103
Launceston 8 11233222
Hobart 8 10233213
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
Macquarie Island 17 00355312
Casey 11 23422213
Mawson 13 21343323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1113 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 20 Active
21 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
22 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 18 September
and is current for 19-20 Sep. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet
to Unsettled for 19Sep, with a notable Unsettled-Active period
between 08-17UT for high latitudes. Active conditions are expected
for 20Sep due to coronal hole effects. Mostly Unsettled conditions
expected for 21Sep and Quiet conditions for 22Sep as coronal
hole effects subside.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal
in both hemispheres over the last 24 hours. Normal-Fair conditions
are expected for high to mid latitudes over the next 24-48 hours
due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUF's near predicted monthly values for all regions
over the last 24 hours. Increased geomagnetic activity over the
next 24-48 hours is expected to result in slightly depressed
MUF's for Southern AUS/NZ regions for 20Sep-21Sep and disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions 20Sep-22Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 253000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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