[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 18 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 19 09:30:19 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep:  Very low

Flares: B class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Sep             20 Sep             21 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 18 September 
UT. AR 2592 produced the largest flare of the day, a long duration 
B 6.8 event peaking at 11:00 UT. There is a small chance of a 
weak C class flare during the next 2 days. The succession of 
faint CMEs observed leaving the eastern limb during 17 September 
are not Earthward directed. Coronal Hole 761 is expected to become 
geoeffective today, 19 September UT. The solar wind speed increased 
from about 320 km/s to 360 km/s during 18 September. The magnitude 
of the IMF was mostly about 5-6 nT. There were prolonged intervals 
of Bz weakly southward conditions. The solar wind conditions 
will become disturbed ahead of fast wind emanating from CH 761.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11123211
      Cocos Island         3   11122100
      Darwin               5   21123201
      Townsville           7   21223311
      Learmonth            4   11123200
      Alice Springs        5   11123300
      Norfolk Island       5   10123211
      Gingin               5   10123211
      Camden               6   11123311
      Canberra             4   00123201
      Launceston           8   11124312
      Hobart               6   11123311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    10   01044401
      Casey               12   33333222
      Mawson              19   42223345

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   2001 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Sep    16    Unsettled to Active
20 Sep    18    Unsettled to Active
21 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during 
18 September UT. The maximum planetary magnetic activity index 
Kp was 3 during 09-15 UT. The maximum Australian region K indices 
were 3 during 12-15 UT. Coronal Hole 761 is expected to become 
geoeffective today, 19 September UT. Conditions are expected 
to be quiet until the arrival of the frontal disturbance ahead 
of fast wind emanating from CH 761. A minor geomagnetic storm 
(Kp=5) is possible during 19-20 September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal 
in both hemispheres during 18 September UT. Conditions are expected 
to be similar today, 19 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Sep    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      29
Sep      35
Oct      34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal 
in the Australian region during 18 September UT. The preliminary 
daily T index was 18 for Cocos Island, 21 for Darwin and 44 for 
Sydney. Conditions are expected to be similar today, 19 September.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:   13.7 p/cc  Temp:   220000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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