[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 September 16 issued 2349 UT on 23 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 24 09:49:46 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours
with region 2592 (N13W38) the source of a B6.2 flare at 0525UT.
There were no earth directed CME's observed in the available
imagery. The solar wind speed continued to decline from ~450km/s
at 00UT to be 390km/s at the time of this report. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) was predominantly northward for most
of the UT day, ranging between -1nT and 6nT. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain at ambient levels for the next 48 hours.
Possible increase in solar wind speed on 26Sep due to a recurrent
high speed solar wind stream from an equatorial located positive
polarity coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low over the next 3 days with a small chance of a weak C class
flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 12110012
Cocos Island 2 12100100
Darwin 3 12110102
Townsville 4 12111112
Learmonth 5 12211103
Alice Springs 3 12110102
Norfolk Island 2 22000011
Gingin 1 01100002
Camden 2 12110011
Canberra 2 12100011
Launceston 5 13210022
Hobart 2 121000--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 02100000
Casey 7 24300002
Mawson 5 23311000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2020 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 5 Quiet
25 Sep 5 Quiet
26 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for 24Sep-25Sep. Unsettled conditions
with possible Active periods on 26Sep due to anticipated coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
26 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Observed MUF's near predicted monthly values over the
last 24 hours. Similar conditions expected over the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's near predicted monthly values for most
regions over the last 24 hours with notable depressions at times
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and variable support for Northern
AUS regions with occasional enhanced periods in early part of
the UT day. MUFs expected to be near monthly predicted values
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 349000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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