[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 15 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 16 09:30:18 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 15 September
UT. There is a small chance of a weak C class flare during the
next 2 days. Active Region 2589 is approaching the western limb
and AR 2592 has rotated into view near the eastern limb. GONG
Hydrogen alpha telescopes recorded a Disappearing Solar Filament
(DSF) west of AR 2592 during 16-17 UT on 15 September. SOHO LASCO
coronograms recorded a bright CME leaving the eastern limb commencing
during 23 UT on 14 September. This CME will have no impact on
Earth. Coronal Hole 760 is located in the Northern Hemisphere
and will become geoeffective during 17-18 September. The solar
wind speed varied between about 300 km/s and 350 km/s during
15 September. The magnitude of the IMF decreased gradually during
most of 15 September and it is currently about 6 nT. The Bz component
was southward between 00 UT and 09 UT and it is currently pointing
northward.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Cocos Island 2 2101001-
Darwin 3 1211101-
Townsville 4 12111112
Learmonth 4 2211111-
Alice Springs 2 1211100-
Norfolk Island 2 21100011
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 3 2211110-
Camden 4 21121111
Canberra 2 11111101
Launceston 5 22222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
Macquarie Island 10 1234310-
Casey 5 2322000-
Mawson 15 5433110-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1211 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 4 Quiet
17 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 15 September
UT. The maximum planetary magnetic activity index Kp was 3 during
00-06 UT. Maximum Australian region K indices reached 2 during
the same interval. The north-south component of the IMF was negative
for many hours during 14-15 September, but a minor storm did
not occur because the solar wind speed was low. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet today, 16 September UT. They may reach
active levels during 17-18 September when CH 760 becomes geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal
in both hemispheres during 15 September UT. Conditions are expected
to be near normal today, 16 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 40 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal
to enhanced in the Australian region during 15 September UT.
The preliminary daily T index was 50 at Sydney. Conditions are
expected to be near normal today, 16 September. The declining
solar UV flux may lead to a softening of propagation support
in comming days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 13.9 p/cc Temp: 248000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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