[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 16 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 17 09:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 16 September
UT. There is a small chance of a weak C class flare during the
next 2 days. Active Region 2592 is located near the eastern limb
and AR 2589 is approaching the western limb. AR 2592 produced
the largest flare of the day, a long duration B 2.9 event peaking
at 12:21 UT. Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) 193 Angstrom images
recorded an eruption associated with this flare. SOHO LASCO coronograms
recorded a weak CME leaving the eastern limb. This CME is not
Earthward directed. Coronal Holes 760 and 761 will become geoeffective
during 17-18 September. The solar wind speed varied between about
300 km/s and 350 km/s during 16 September and it may start to
increase later today, 17 September UT. The magnitude of the IMF
varied between about 5 nT and 8 nT during 16 September. The Bz
component was weakly northward until 14 UT, and then it swung
weakly southward.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 10010110
Cocos Island 1 11010110
Darwin 2 11110111
Townsville 2 11011111
Learmonth 2 01111110
Alice Springs 1 01110110
Norfolk Island 1 00010110
Gingin 1 10010110
Camden 1 10011110
Canberra 0 00000100
Launceston 2 10011210
Hobart 1 00010210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 22220121
Mawson 8 11010144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3222 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 16 September
UT. The maximum planetary magnetic activity index Kp was 2 during
18-21 UT. Maximum Australian region K indices reached 1. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet today, 17 September UT. They
may become unsettled to active if CH 760 and CH 761 become geoeffective
later today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in both hemispheres during 16 September
UT. Conditions are expected to be similar today, 17 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in the Australian region during 16 September
UT. Conditions were depressed at Cocos Island; the preliminary
daily T index was only 7 for this station. Conditions are expected
to be mildly depressed to near normal today, 17 September. Declining
solar UV flux may lead to a further softening of the propagation
support in coming days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 14.3 p/cc Temp: 246000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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