[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 14 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 15 09:30:31 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep:  Very low

Flares: B class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Sep             16 Sep             17 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during 14 September UT. 
AR 2589 produced several weak B class flares. There is a small 
chance of a weak C class flare during the next 2 days. GONG Hydrogen 
alpha images recorded a Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) south 
of AR 2589. The disappearance occurred slowly during the first 
half of 14 September. SOHO LASCO coronograms recorded no CME 
in association with the slow DSF. The solar wind speed increased 
from about 280 km/s to 350 km/s during 14 September due to the 
arrival of a sector boundary crossing. The magnitude of the IMF 
is currently varying in the range of about 7-10 nT and the Bz 
component is varying in the range of about -6 nT to -8 nT. The 
Bz component has been predominantly southward since 10 UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11123221
      Cocos Island         6   11122231
      Darwin               4   11122121
      Townsville           6   11123222
      Learmonth            7   21223221
      Alice Springs        6   11123222
      Norfolk Island       5   21122211
      Culgoora             9   32223222
      Gingin               7   21113232
      Camden               6   11123222
      Canberra             6   11123221
      Launceston           8   12223321
      Hobart               5   111131--    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     8   01115210
      Casey                8   23222222
      Mawson              32   43212375

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2112 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during 
14 September UT. The maximum planetary magnetic activity index 
Kp was 3 during 12-15 UT. Australian region K indices also peaked 
at 3 during 12-15 UT. The preliminary Kp index is 3 at the time 
of this report, and may reach 4 during 21-24 UT. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be unsettled during 15 September. 
They may reach active to minor storm levels (Kp=5) due to 
sustained Bz southward conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal 
in both hemispheres during 14 September UT. Conditions are expected 
to be near normal today, 15 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Sep    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      29
Sep      35
Oct      34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal 
in the Australian region during 14 September UT. Conditions are 
expected to be near normal today, 15 September. The declining 
solar UV flux may see a softening of the support in comming days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 307 km/sec  Density:   11.8 p/cc  Temp:   212000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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