[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 13 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 14 09:30:21 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep:  Very low

Flares: B class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Sep             15 Sep             16 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during 13 September UT. 
There were several weak B class flares. There is a small chance 
of a weak C class flare during the next 2 days. GONG Hydrogen 
alpha images recorded a Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) just 
north of AR 2589 during 19 UT. SOHO LASCO coronograms recorded 
no Earthward directed CMEs. The solar wind speed decreased to 
below 300 km/s during 13 September and the Earth is expected 
to remain in slow wind today, 14 September. The magnitude of 
the IMF has been in the range of about 5-7 nT. The Bz component 
was weakly southward for most of 13 September. No major solar 
wind disturbances are expected to impact Earth during the next 
2 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11120001
      Cocos Island         2   11110011
      Darwin               2   11120011
      Townsville           2   11120001
      Learmonth            2   11110101
      Alice Springs        1   11110001
      Norfolk Island       1   10120000
      Culgoora             6   22122222
      Gingin               1   10110001
      Camden               2   11121001
      Canberra             2   01120001
      Launceston           4   12221101
      Hobart               2   11121000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     3   11131000
      Casey                5   23210111
      Mawson              13   43222224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   2111 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Sep     4    Quiet
15 Sep     6    Quiet
16 Sep     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 13 September 
UT. The maximum planetary magnetic activity index Kp was 2 and 
many Australian region local K indices were near zero. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to remain quiet today, 14 September. 
Unsettled intervals are possible during 15-16 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal 
to enhanced in both hemispheres during 13 September UT. Conditions 
are expected to be near normal during the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Sep    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      29
Sep      35
Oct      34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced
15 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced
16 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal 
to enhanced in the Australian region during 13 September UT. 
The preliminary daily T index for Darwin was 90 due to strongly 
enhanced conditions during 06-16 UT. The preliminary daily T 
index for Perth was 56. Conditions are expected to be near normal 
to enhanced during the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 318 km/sec  Density:   13.2 p/cc  Temp:   204000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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