[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 12 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 13 09:30:18 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Sep             14 Sep             15 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during 12 September UT. 
The magnetic complexity of the visible active regions is moderate. 
There is a small chance of a weak C class flare during the next 
2 days. SOHO LASCO coronograms recorded no Earthward directed 
CME. The solar wind speed varied in the range of about 300 km/s 
to 350 km/s during 12 September and it is expected to remain 
low during the next 2 days. The magnitude of the IMF peaked at 
13 nT during 09 UT. Bz remained positive for most of the day. 
The magnitude of the IMF is currently about 7 nT and Bz is weakly 
southward.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22112111
      Cocos Island         3   12112100
      Darwin               5   22122111
      Townsville           6   22223111
      Learmonth            5   22223010
      Alice Springs        4   22122010
      Norfolk Island       3   22112010
      Culgoora             7   22222222
      Gingin               3   21112011
      Camden               3   22112001
      Canberra             3   22112000
      Launceston           5   22212111
      Hobart               3   22112000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey                8   34311001
      Mawson               7   33211013

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Sep     5    Quiet
14 Sep     5    Quiet
15 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 12 September 
UT. The planetary magnetic activity index Kp reached 3 during 
00-03 UT and Australian region K indices reached 2. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be quiet with isolated unsettled intervals 
during the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near normal 
to enhanced in both hemispheres during 12 September UT. Conditions 
are expected to be near normal during the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Sep    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      29
Sep      35
Oct      34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced 
to near normal in the Australian region during 12 September UT. 
The preliminary daily T index was 61 for Perth and 53 for Cocos 
Island, but only 24 for Hobart. Conditions are expected to be 
mostly near normal during the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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