[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 11 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 12 09:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 11 September.
Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low for the next three
days with a slight chance of an M-class flare which can be produced
by AR2585 (now at N08W76). No Earthward directed CMEs were observed
in available SOHO/LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed was varying
in the range 340-380 km/s, slowly decreasing on average, currently
the speed is around 340 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain steady in the vicinity of its nominal levels during
the next 24 hours. At the end of 12 September its speed may start
increasing. The interplanetary magnetic field was steady up to
approximately 1100 UT; Bt and Bz were fluctuating in the ranges
3-4 nT and -3/+3 nT, respectively. Then Bt increased up to 6
nT and Bz became negative, its minimum value was -5 nT. Currently
Bt is 7 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 10012200
Cocos Island 1 10101000
Darwin 2 10102201
Townsville 4 11112211
Learmonth 2 00102200
Alice Springs 2 01002201
Norfolk Island 1 00011100
Gingin 2 01012210
Camden 3 10012211
Canberra 2 00012200
Launceston 4 10113211
Hobart 2 10012200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
Macquarie Island 4 00122300
Casey 7 23212212
Mawson 12 31101353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1220 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 7 Quiet
13 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over Australia for
the UT day, 11 September. In the Antarctic region isolated Unsettled
to Minor Storm periods were also observed. For the next UT day,
12 September, geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet with
possible isolated Unsettled periods. For 13-14 September Geomagnetic
activity can increase up to Unsettled levels due to weak coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: For the next 3 UT days, 12-14 September, normal HF conditions
are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
13 Sep 35 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed in the Australian
region during the UT day, 11 September. Near predicted monthly
values of MUFs are expected in the Australian/NZ regions during
the next 3 UT days, 12-14 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 371000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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