[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 10 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 11 09:30:23 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 10 September.
Three active regions, AR 2585, 2989 and 2591, produced several
B-class flares. AR 2591 was responsible for the largest X-ray
flare, B9.2, peaking at 1922 UT. Expect solar activity to be
Very Low to Low for the next three days with a slight chance
of an M-class flare which can be produced by AR2585 (now at N08W63).
No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in available SOHO/LASCO
imagery. The solar wind speed was varying in the range 370-430
km/s, slowly decreasing on average, currently the speed is around
380 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected to remain in the vicinity
of its nominal levels during the next 24 hours. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between -3/+3 nT
during the last 24 hours with Bt varying between 3 nT and 5 nT;
currently Bt is 3 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 11100001
Darwin 2 12000002
Townsville 2 12110011
Learmonth 1 01100002
Alice Springs 1 01100002
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Gingin 1 01100002
Camden 1 11100001
Canberra 0 01000001
Launceston 2 12100001
Hobart 1 01100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 11110000
Casey 6 33310002
Mawson 15 33120016
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2010 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 7 Quiet
12 Sep 7 Quiet
13 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over Australia for
the UT day, 10 September. In the Antarctic region isolated Unsettled
to Storm periods were also observed. For the next 2 UT days,
11-12 September, geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet
with possible isolated Unsettled periods. For 13 September Geomagnetic
activity can increase up to Unsettled levels due to coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: For the next 3 UT days, 11-13 September, normal HF conditions
are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed in the Australian
region during the UT day, 10 September. Near predicted monthly
values of MUFs are expected in the Australian/NZ regions during
the next 3 UT days, 11-13 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 399000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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