[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 09 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 10 09:30:18 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 09 September.
Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low for the next three
days with a slight chance of an M-class flare which can be produced
by AR2585 (now at N08W50). No Earthward directed CMEs were observed
in available SOHO/LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed was varying
in the range 460-400 km/s, slowly decreasing on average, currently
the speed is around 420 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain in the vicinity of its nominal levels during the next
24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
ranged between -4/+4 nT during the last 24 hours with Bt varying
between 4 nT and 5 nT; currently Bt is 4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 3 21101012
Learmonth 1 00100111
Alice Springs 1 11100011
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Gingin 1 00100111
Camden 2 11101011
Canberra 1 11001001
Launceston 2 11101011
Hobart 1 10101001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 10 34411111
Mawson 12 23201135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 3433 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 7 Quiet
11 Sep 7 Quiet
12 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over Australia for
the UT day, 09 September. In the Antarctic region an isolated
Unsettled to Active period was also observed. For the next 3
UT days, 10-12 September, geomagnetic activity is expected to
be Quiet with possible isolated Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: For the next 3 UT days, 10-12 September, normal HF conditions
are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed in the Australian
region during the UT day, 09 September. Near predicted monthly
values of MUFs are expected in the Australian/NZ regions during
the next 3 UT days, 10-12 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 260000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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