[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 4 09:30:23 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 03 September.
Note AR2585 (N08E30) continues to produce surges and subflares
observed in H-alpha imagery. Expect solar activity to be Very
Low to Low for the next three days with a 5% chance of an M-class
flare. Based on limited SOHO imagery no Earthward bound CME expected.
Solar wind speed varied between 650 and 750 km/s during the last
24 hours due to a coronal hole, currently around 700 km/s. The
solar wind is expected to remain elevated for for 04 September.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +/-7 nT during the last 24 hours with a Bt varying between
6 and 8 nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 21 23534433
Cocos Island 13 33323332
Darwin 17 23334433
Townsville 21 23534433
Learmonth 23 33534532
Alice Springs 17 23434432
Norfolk Island 16 23533322
Gingin 28 33545533
Camden 24 24544433
Canberra 23 24544432
Launceston 35 34655443
Hobart 29 34644433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
Macquarie Island 69 45776643
Casey 25 43444533
Mawson 72 67545666
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gingin 108 (Major storm)
Canberra 108 (Major storm)
Melbourne 138 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 36
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 36 6633 4324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 16 Unsettled to Active
05 Sep 12 Unsettled
06 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Minor Storm levels
with periods of weak substorming over Australia for the UT day,
03 September. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Quiet
to Unsettled with isolated Active periods at higher latitudes
for the next three days due to an elevated solar wind speed associated
with a recurrent coronal hole. The Antarctic region may have
isolated periods of Minor Storm conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed today due to moderate geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly value MUFs were observed in the
Australian region during the UT day, 03 September except for
minor depressions in southern Australian during local night time
hours. Mild to Moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed in the Australian/NZ regions
today, 04 September, with mild depressions possible on the following
two days. Also noted isolated cases of sporadic E in the Australian
region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 640 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 695000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list