[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 3 09:30:22 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 02 September.
Note AR2585 continues to produce surges and subflares observed
in H-alpha imagery. Noise storm in progress on 245 MHz. Weak
broadband continuum in progress on solar radio spectrograph.
Expect solar activity to be Low for the next three days with
a 15% chance of an M-class flare. Based on limited SOHO imagery
no Earthward bound CME expected. Solar wind speed increased from
550 to just over 700 km/s during the last 24 hours due a large
coronal hole extending from the northern pole to the lower latitudes
of the Sun. The solar wind is expected to remain elevated for
the next 2-3 days. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/-8 nT during the last 24 hours with a
Bt varying between 6 and 10 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 23 45335323
Cocos Island 14 34224313
Darwin 22 35335323
Townsville 23 45335323
Learmonth 25 45335324
Alice Springs 22 35335323
Norfolk Island 18 45233323
Gingin 25 44335434
Camden 21 45334323
Canberra 21 45334323
Launceston 25 45335423
Hobart 25 45335423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
Macquarie Island 38 55256533
Casey 20 34444323
Mawson 57 66655436
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 19 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 94 (Minor storm)
Canberra 65 (Active)
Melbourne 104 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 32 4454 4355
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
04 Sep 12 Unsettled
05 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Minor Storm levels
over Australia for the UT day, 02 September. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active
periods at higher latitudes for the next three days due to an
elevated solar wind speed associated with a recurrent coronal
hole. The Antarctic region may have isolated periods of Minor
Storm conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed today due to moderate geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
04 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly value MUFs were observed in the
Australian region during the UT day, 02 September. Mild to Moderate
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be
observed in the Australian/NZ regions today, 03 September, with
mild depressions possible on the following two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 475 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 290000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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