[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 01 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 2 09:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 01 September.
Note AR 2585 produce some subflaring in H-alpha, however no C-class
flares. Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low for the next
three days with a slight chance of M-class flares. Based on limited
SOHO imagery no Earthward bound CME expected. Solar wind speed
increased from 410 to 600 km/s during the last 24 hours due a
large coronal hole extending from the northern pole to the lower
latitudes of the Sun, currently just under 600 km/s. The solar
wind is expected to remain elevated today, 02 September. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+/-8 nT during the last 24 hours with a Bt varying between 5
and 10 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 17 22434343
Cocos Island 12 21333242
Darwin 15 31334333
Townsville 17 32344333
Learmonth 17 22434343
Alice Springs 16 22334343
Norfolk Island 13 32333233
Gingin 20 22434353
Camden 16 22434333
Canberra 16 22434333
Launceston 27 33644343
Hobart 20 22544333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
Macquarie Island 30 23546344
Casey 19 33333254
Mawson 74 66543486
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2111 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
03 Sep 12 Unsettled
04 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over Australia
for the UT day, 01 September. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to remain Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active periods at
higher latitudes for the next three days due to an elevated solar
wind speed associated with a recurrent coronal hole. The Antarctic
region may have isolated periods of Minor Storm conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed today due to moderate geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in Northern Australian
region during the UT day, 01 September. Mild to Moderate depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be observed in
the Australian/NZ regions today, 02 September, with mild depressions
possible on the following two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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