[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 31 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 1 09:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 31 August, with
two C-class flares, the largest was a C2.2 at approximately 2019
UT from AR 2585(N08E74). Expect solar activity to Remain Low
for the next three days with a slight chance of M-class flares.
SOHO C2 imagery showed a CME beginning at ~0700 UT on the southwest
limb, it is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed
ranged between 480 and 400 km/s during the last 24 hours, currently
425 km/s. The solar wind is expected to increase today and tomorrow
as the large northern pole connected coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +/-6 nT during the last 24 hours with a Bt varying between
5 and 8 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11101012
Cocos Island 2 21100011
Darwin 3 11201012
Townsville 3 12101112
Learmonth 4 22201022
Alice Springs 4 22201022
Norfolk Island 2 11101011
Gingin 3 21201012
Camden 2 111010--
Canberra 2 11101011
Launceston 4 21102122
Hobart 2 11102011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 20102010
Casey 12 43421122
Mawson 15 33311235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17 3321 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 12 Unsettled
02 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
03 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over Australia
for the UT day, 31 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
remain Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active periods at higher
latitudes for the next three days due to an expected increase
in the solar wind speed associated with a recurrent coronal hole.
The Antarctic region may have isolated periods of Minor Storm
conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed from 01-03 September due to minor geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in Northern Australian
region during the UT day, 31 August. Mild depressions in MUFs
and degradations in HF conditions may be observed in the Australian/NZ
regions for the next three days due to minor geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 257000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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