[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 October 16 issued 2352 UT on 25 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 26 10:52:26 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 25 October.
Currently there is only one significant sunspot group on the
Sun, AR2603, which has doubled in area over the last 24 hours
to 60 mils. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low
for the next couple days. San Vito and Learmonth Solar Observatories
reported two disappearing solar filaments that have no associated
CMEs and are not expected to be geoeffective. SOHO C2 imagery
showed a CME on the NW limb beginning at 24/2148UT associated
with an erupting filament observed via SDO AIA 304 imagery. Another
CME was observed on the east limb beginning at 25/1912UT, expected
to be associated with activity around the east limb on the far
side of the Sun. Neither are expected to be Earthward bound,
pending further analysis. Solar wind speed increased from 400km/s
to just over 800km/s during the last 24 hours as expected due
to the large recurrent positive polarity coronal hole becoming
geoeffective (preceded by CIR at ~0830UT). Over this period the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has been oriented away from
the Sun and the B field varied between 6 and 20 nT. The Bz component
of the IMF was predominantly negative during the first half of
the UT day, 25 October, and fluctuated between negative and positive
for the second half of the UT day, dipping to -17nT mid way through
the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 28 22356434
Cocos Island 23 22245534
Darwin 21 22255433
Townsville 23 23355433
Learmonth 33 22356535
Alice Springs 25 22255534
Norfolk Island 18 22345333
Culgoora 23 22255434
Gingin 36 32356545
Camden 28 22356434
Canberra 28 22356434
Launceston 35 33366444
Hobart 34 23366444
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 50 33457654
Casey 28 34445444
Mawson 102 54466868
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 64 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 37
Planetary 60
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18 3332 5224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 40 Active to Minor Storm
27 Oct 40 Active to Minor Storm
28 Oct 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 24 October
and is current for 25-27 Oct. Geomagnetic activity ranged between
Quiet and Major Storm levels over the UT day, 25 October. Dst
index indicate substorming in progress, dipping to ~-70nT at
times. Expect the geomagnetic conditions to remain at Unsettled
to Minor Storm levels for the next three days with a possibility
of isolated periods of Major Storm levels in the high latitudes
due to the increase in the solar wind speed associated with a
large coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Fair Poor-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Fair Fair-poor Poor
27 Oct Fair Fair-poor Poor
28 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mildly depressed to depressed MUFs were observed for
the UT day, 25 October. Similar conditions are expected over
the next three days due to very low levels of ionising radiation
and rise in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct -20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
27 Oct -20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Oct -20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 24 October
and is current for 25-27 Oct. Mildly depressed to depressed MUFs
were observed for the UT day, 25 October, in the Aus/NZ region.
Current depressions are most likely associated with low levels
of ionising radiation and a rise in geomagnetic activity resulting
in ionospheric storming. Similar conditions are expected over
the next three days. Note there were isolated periods of sporadic
E observed in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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