[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 26 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 27 10:30:36 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 77/16 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 26 October.
AR2603 (N13W62) has a slight chance of producing a C-class flare
as it developes. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for
the next three days. No Earthward bound CMEs observed with available
SOHO imagery. Solar wind speed remains elevated due to the large
recurrent positive polarity coronal hole becoming geoeffective,
ranging between ~800km/s to ~675km/s during the last 24 hours.
Over this period the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has
been oriented away from the Sun and the B total field varied
between 7 and 4 nT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between
+/- 6nT with periods of prolong negative Bz. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated today, 27 October, followed by
a gradually decrease over the next couple of days, but still
above nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Unsettled to
Active with isolated periods of Minor Storms
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 18 33343433
Cocos Island 13 22233433
Darwin 18 33343433
Townsville 18 33343433
Learmonth 26 33354543
Alice Springs 18 33343433
Norfolk Island 15 33343332
Culgoora 13 22332433
Gingin 22 33354433
Camden 18 33343433
Canberra 18 33343433
Launceston 23 34453433
Hobart 21 34443433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
Macquarie Island 59 35676642
Casey 37 45453644
Mawson 60 36554765
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 68 (Active)
Canberra 81 (Minor storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 48
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 39
Planetary 58 4535 7665
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 40 Minor Storm
28 Oct 25 Active
29 Oct 20 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 24 October
and is current for 25-27 Oct. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled
to Active with isolated cases of Minor and Major Storm levels
over the UT day, 26 October. Dst index indicate substorming in
progress, dipping to ~-80nT at times. Expect similar geomagnetic
conditions today, followed by Unsettled to Active conditions
on the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Fair Fair-poor Poor
28 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
29 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mildly depressed to depressed MUFs were observed for
the UT day, 26 October. Expect these conditions to prevail for
the next couple days with some degradation in HF communication.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct -20 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
28 Oct -20 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
29 Oct -10 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 24 October
and is current for 25-27 Oct. Mildly depressed to depressed MUFs
were observed for the UT day, 26 October, in the Aus/NZ region.
Current depressions are associated with low levels of ionising
radiation and a rise in geomagnetic activity resulting in ionospheric
storming. Expect these conditions to prevail for the next couple
days with some degradation in HF communication. Note there were
periods of sporadic E observed in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 626 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 457000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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