[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 24 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 25 10:30:24 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 74/11 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Currently there is only one sunspot group on the Sun, AR2603,
with an area of 30 mils. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next three days. San Vito Solar Observatory
reported an eleven degree disappearing solar filament at approximately
S34W24 between 24/0657UT and 24/1057UT, however, SOHO C2 imagery
showed no associated CME. Furthermore no Earthward directed CME
observed over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 450km/s to 370 km/s during the last 24 hours and is currently
around 390 km/s. Over this period the Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) has been oriented away from the Sun and ranged between
5 and 10 nT. The Bz component of the IMF was predominantly negative
and varied between +6 and -8 nT. Mid way through the UT day,
25 October, expect a corotating interaction region preceding
a high speed solar wind stream due to a large positive polarity
coronal hole extending from the solar north pole across the equatorial
region into the southern hemisphere of the Sun. The solar wind
speed is expected to gradually increase to just over 700 km/s
over the next couple of days, analysis based on previous rotations.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 22334212
Cocos Island 6 22223210
Darwin 7 21233211
Townsville 11 22334212
Learmonth 10 22234212
Alice Springs 10 12334211
Norfolk Island 10 22234212
Culgoora 11 ---24222
Gingin 9 22224212
Camden 11 22334212
Canberra 10 22334211
Launceston 16 23435212
Hobart 13 23325212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
Macquarie Island 23 24436410
Casey 13 34333212
Mawson 27 44534335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 1131 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
26 Oct 35 Active to Minor Storm
27 Oct 35 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged between Quiet and Active
over the UT day, 24 October. Expect the geomagnetic activity
to increase over the next three days due to an increase in the
solar wind speed associated with a large coronal hole. Activity
will very between Unsettled and Major Storm conditions during
this period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
26 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
27 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were observed for the UT day,
24 October. Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected over
the next three days due to very low levels of ionising radiation
and expected rise in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Oct -10 About 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions
for the UT day, 24 October. Current depressions are most likely
associated with low levels of ionising radiation. Minor to Moderate
MUF depressions are expected for the next three days due to an
increase in geomagnetic activity and low levels of ionising radiation.
Note there were isolated periods of sporadic E observed in the
Australian region mainly in the latter half of the UT day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 300000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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