[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 23 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 24 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 74/11 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed gradually increased from around 370 to 460 km/s
by 1000 UT today (23 October) and then dropped down to around
420 by 2300 UT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, mostly
varied between +/-6 nT today, staying slightly southwards for
relatively longer periods of time during the second half of the
UT day. Bt varied mostly between 5 and 8 nT during the day. Solar
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the next
three days (24, 25 and 26 October) with some chance of C-class
activity. The effect of a positive polarity coronal hole is expected
to keep the solar wind stream strong for the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 13222122
Cocos Island 4 12211211
Darwin 6 13212122
Townsville 8 13223122
Learmonth 8 13223222
Alice Springs 6 13212112
Norfolk Island 7 13312022
Culgoora 6 2-2--122
Camden 8 13223122
Canberra 6 13222121
Launceston 9 13323122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
Macquarie Island 12 02514121
Casey 16 35432222
Mawson 20 22232455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 1001 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 30 Unsettled to Minor Storm
25 Oct 30 Unsettled to Minor Storm
26 Oct 20 Unsettled to Active, isolated minor storm periods
possible
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 22 October
and is current for 23-24 Oct. Geomagnetic activity did not rise
to the expected levels on 23 October due to weaker than expected
solar wind stream from the coronal hole and Bz not turning negative
enough. Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at Quiet to Unsettled
levels today. Unsettled to Minor Storm levels of geomagnetic
activity on 24 and 25 October and Unsettled to Active with some
possibility of isolated Minor Storm levels on 26 October may
be expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
26 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mainly due to low levels of ionising radiation, minor
to moderate MUF depressions were observed today (UT day 23 October).
Minor to significant MUF depressions may be expected on 24, 25
and 26 October due to very low levels of ionising radiation and
expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct -15 20 to 50% below predicted monthly values
25 Oct -15 20 to 50% below predicted monthly values
26 Oct -10 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 22 October
and is current for 23-24 Oct. Mainly due to low levels of ionising
radiation, minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in
the Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 23 October). Minor to significant
MUF depressions may be expected in this region on 24, 25 and
26 October due to very low levels of ionising radiation and expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 13.0 p/cc Temp: 219000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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