[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 23 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed was between 325 and 375 km/s km/s until around
22 UT (22 October). The solar wind speed then showed an increase
to slightly over 400 km/s by 2300 UT, possibly indicating the
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream due to an anticipated
coronal hole effect. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, mostly
varied between +/-4 nT and Bt stayed around 5 nT on 22 October
(UT day). Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
for the next three days (23, 24 and 25 October) with some chance
of C-class activity. The effect of a positive polarity coronal
hole is expected to strengthen the solar wind stream for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 21122322
Cocos Island 5 11221122
Darwin 6 21122222
Townsville 7 21122322
Learmonth 8 22122332
Alice Springs 7 21122322
Norfolk Island 5 11122221
Culgoora 6 22221222
Camden 6 21122311
Canberra 5 11122311
Launceston 7 21122322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 11121311
Casey 10 33322222
Mawson 16 31112255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 25 Quiet to minor storm
24 Oct 35 Active to minor storm, isolated major storm periods
possible
25 Oct 35 Active to minor storm, isolated major storm periods
possible
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 22 October
and is current for 23-24 Oct. Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly
at Quiet to Unsettled levels today (UT day 22 October). Geomagnetic
activity is expected to rise from Quiet to Minor Storm levels
on 23 October due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a positive polarity recurrent coronal hole. Due to the effect
of this coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may stay higher at
Active to Minor Storm levels on 24 October and 25 October with
some possibility of isolated major storm periods on these days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-poor
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mainly due to low levels of ionising radiation, minor
to moderate MUF depressions were observed today (UT day 22 October).
Minor to significant MUF depressions may be expected on 23, 24
and 25 October due to very low levels of ionising radiation and
expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct -7 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
24 Oct -15 20 to 50% below predicted monthly values
25 Oct -15 20 to 50% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 22 October
and is current for 23-24 Oct. Mainly due to low levels of ionising
radiation, minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in
the Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 22 October). Minor to significant
MUF depressions may be expected in this region on 23, 24 and
25 October due to very low levels of ionising radiation and expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 323000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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