[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 21 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 22 10:30:26 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed was around 400 km/s showing a slow decline during
this period. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, mostly stayed
positive up to around 3nT and Bt stayed around 4 nT on 21 October
(UT day). Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
for the next three days (22, 23 and 24 October) with some chance
of C-class activity. A positive polarity coronal hole is expected
to take a geoeffective position from late on 22 October. This
may result in strengthening of solar wind stream from that time
for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11000011
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 2 11000012
Townsville 2 21000011
Learmonth 1 11000001
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Norfolk Island 1 10000011
Culgoora 8 23222222
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 8 34310002
Mawson 3 12100003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 1 1000 0010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 12 Quiet to Active
23 Oct 20 Unsettled to minor storm
24 Oct 20 Unsettled to minor storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at Quiet levels on
most locations today (UT day 21 October). Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels during the first half
of 22 October and then rise to unsettled and possibly active
levels in the late hours of the day due to the effect of a CIR
and a high speed solar wind stream from a positive polarity recurrent
coronal hole. Due to the effect of this coronal hole, geomagnetic
activity may stay higher at Unsettled to Minor Storm levels late
on 23 October and 24 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Oct Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mainly due to low levels of ionising radiation, minor
to moderate MUF depressions were observed today (UT day 21 October).
Nearly similar conditions may be expected during most parts of
UT day 22 October. Minor to significant MUF depressions may be
expected on 23 and 24 October due to very low levels of ionising
radiation and expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on
these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct 4 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
23 Oct -10 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
24 Oct -10 10 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mainly due to low levels of ionising radiation, minor
to moderate MUF depressions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions
today (UT day 21 October). Nearly similar conditions may be expected
during most parts of UT day 22 October. Minor to significant
MUF depressions may be expected in this region on 23 and 24 October
due to very low levels of ionising radiation and expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 339000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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