[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 19 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 20 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
As anticipated the coronal hole effect seems to have weakened
further. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 580 and 450
km/s during this period. The north-south component of IMF, Bz,
mostly varied between +/-3nT and Bt stayed around 4 nT on 19
October (UT day). This coronal hole effect is expected to gradually
further weaken over the next 24 hours. Currently there is one
sunspot region (2602) on the solar disk visible from the earth.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the
next three days (20, 21 and 22 October) with some chance of C-class
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet on most
locations with some unsettled and active periods on high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21221211
Cocos Island 3 21211100
Darwin 3 21121101
Townsville 5 21221211
Learmonth 5 21221211
Alice Springs 4 21221201
Norfolk Island 2 21120100
Culgoora 5 21221-22
Camden 5 22221210
Canberra 5 22221111
Launceston 6 22222211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 21131100
Casey 13 44421211
Mawson 18 54222243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3432 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
21 Oct 4 Quiet
22 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at Quiet levels on
most locations with some Unsettled and Active periods on high
latitude locations today (UT day 19 October). As per the expectations,
the coronal hole effect showed further weakening today and is
expected to gradually further weaken over the next 24 hours.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels
with the possibility of some Unsettled periods on 20 October
and Quiet levels on 21 and 22 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mainly due to low levels of ionising radiation, minor
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
were observed today (UT day 19 October). Minor to mild degradations
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs are expected to continue
during the next three days (20, 21 and 22 October).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 19 October
and is current for 19-20 Oct. Mainly due to low levels of ionising
radiation, minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions today (UT
day 19 October). Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs are expected to continue in this region
during the next three days (20, 21 and 22 October).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 645 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 953000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list