[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 18 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 19 10:30:44 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
As anticipated the coronal hole effect seems to have started
to weaken. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 750 and
600 km/s during this period. The north-south component of IMF,
Bz, mostly varied between +/-3nT and Bt stayed around 5 nT on
18 October (UT day). This coronal hole effect is expected to
gradually further weaken over the next 24 hours. Currently there
are two sunspot regions (2600 and 2602) on the solar disk visible
from the earth. A filament disappearance has been noticed near
region 2602 around 21.10 UT/17 October, but LASCO imagery did
not show any CME at this time. Further analysis is required about
the possible CME and its effects. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels for the next three days with some
chance of C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet, with some
unsettled and active periods on high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22222112
Cocos Island 3 22211100
Darwin 4 22211102
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 6 23222102
Alice Springs 5 22222102
Norfolk Island 5 22221111
Culgoora 7 -2222222
Camden 7 23322111
Canberra 5 22222101
Launceston 8 23322212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
Macquarie Island 8 23332201
Casey 15 44432222
Mawson 29 45443226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 55 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 3334 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 6 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Oct 4 Quiet
21 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at Quiet levels on
most locations with some Unsettled and Active periods on high
latitude locations today (UT day 18 October). The coronal hole
effect showed weakening today and is expected to gradually further
weaken over the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 19 October and Quiet levels
on 20 and 21 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Due to low levels of ionising radiation and slightly
enhanced geomagnetic activity levels, minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions were observed today (UT day
18 October). Minor degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs are possible on 19 October. Improvements to mostly normal
levels are expected in HF conditions through 20 and 21 October
as the geomagnetic activity is expected to stay at Quiet levels
during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Oct 8 Near predicted monthly values
21 Oct 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Due to low levels of ionising radiation and slightly
enhanced geomagnetic activity levels, minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions today (UT day 18 October). Minor degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs are possible in this region on 19 October.
Improvements to mostly normal levels are expected in HF conditions
in the region through 20 and 21 October as the geomagnetic activity
is expected to stay at Quiet levels during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 734 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 1000000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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