[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 October 16 issued 2334 UT on 17 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 18 10:34:57 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. The largest
event of this period was a C4.2 flare that peaked at 0038 UT/17
October. As anticipated the coronal hole is keeping the solar
wind stream strong. Solar wind speed varied between 700 and 800
km/s during this period. The north-south component of IMF, Bz,
varied between +/-5nT and Bt stayed around 5 nT on 17 October
(UT day). This coronal hole is expected to gradually weaken over
the next 48 hours. Currently there are two sunspot regions (2600
and 2602) on the solar disk visible from the earth. Solar activity
is expected to stay at very low levels for the next three days
with some chance of C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 17 23352432
Cocos Island 10 22232421
Darwin 12 32342322
Townsville 16 33442332
Learmonth 17 33352332
Alice Springs 16 23352422
Norfolk Island 9 22332321
Culgoora 23 2236-4-2
Camden 23 2-4524--
Canberra 19 23452432
Launceston 22 33453433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
Macquarie Island 34 23573432
Casey 26 45542433
Mawson 50 55543574
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 115 (Major storm)
Canberra 118 (Major storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 2133 3254
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 12 Quiet to Active
19 Oct 6 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied mostly between Quiet and
Active levels with some minor storm periods today (UT day 17
October) due to effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a recurrent coronal hole. This coronal hole is expected to gradually
weaken over the next 48 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be at Quiet to Active levels on 18 October, Quiet to Unsettled
level on 19 October and mostly Quiet levels on 20 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Due to low levels of ionising radiation and enhanced
geomagnetic activity levels, minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions were observed today (UT day
17 October). Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected on
18 October. Improvements to mostly normal levels are expected
in HF conditions through 19 and 20 October as the geomagnetic
activity is expected to weaken during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Oct 12 Near predicted monthly values
20 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Due to low levels of ionising radiation and enhanced
geomagnetic activity levels, minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions today (UT day 17 October). Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected in this region on 18 October. Improvements to
mostly normal levels are expected in HF conditions through 19
and 20 October as the geomagnetic activity is expected to weaken
during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 670 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 520000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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