[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 16 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 17 10:30:34 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 75/13
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels for the UT
day, 16 Oct. The three days outlook is for Very Low solar activity
with a chance of C-class flares. A filament lifted off after
0600 UT North West region 2602(N06E15). Available coronagraph
imagery suggested that this event doesn't seem to have triggered
a CME. Solar wind speeds were at very high levels throughout
the UT day, the current solar wind speed (16/2300 UT) is around
750 km/s. These enhanced solar wind speeds are due to the high
speed streams emanating from a negative polarity coronal hole.
The north south component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) fluctuated between +/-7 nT, with no prolonged periods of
significant southward Bz. Bt varied between 5-10nT. Enhanced
solar wind speeds are expected to persist over the next two days
due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 21333333
Cocos Island 11 21223342
Darwin 12 21333333
Townsville 11 21333233
Learmonth 15 31333343
Alice Springs 11 21332333
Norfolk Island 9 11332232
Culgoora 9 22222332
Camden 11 21332333
Canberra 10 21332332
Launceston 12 21333333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Macquarie Island 20 21445342
Casey 32 55633343
Mawson 61 43433387
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 9 (Quiet)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 80 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2222 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
18 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
19 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions remained Quiet to Unsettled
on 16 Oct. Although solar wind speed increased, the IMF Bz component
maintained a moderately northward bias for most of the UT day,
limiting magnetic connection. With the solar wind speed expected
to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours, a favourable interplanetary
magnetic field orientation of prolonged southward Bz can lead
to Active and Minor Storm levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Poor-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Improved MUFs as the ionosphere recovered after recent
sever geomagnetic storm. Support for radio wave propagation recovered
to mostly normal ionospheric conditions across all AUS/NZ regions
during the UT day, 16 Oct. Mildly degraded HF conditions may
be observed during the next few days due to low levels of ionising
radiation and mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 494 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 348000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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