[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 October 16 issued 2352 UT on 15 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 16 10:52:34 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels for the UT
day, 15 Oct. The three days outlook is for Very Low solar activity
with a chance of C-class flares. The 14 Oct CME, thought to be
associated with a filament eruption, is unlikely have any impact
on earth. The solar wind speed continued to increase, from 400
km/s to around 600 km/s currently. The north-south component
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between
-7nT and +10 nT, and was northward for most parts of the UT day.
Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected over the next three days
due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 22222323
Cocos Island 7 12222322
Darwin 8 22222313
Townsville 10 22232323
Learmonth 10 22222423
Alice Springs 9 22222323
Norfolk Island 6 22221222
Culgoora 9 22222323
Camden 9 22222323
Canberra 9 22222323
Launceston 13 32332423
Hobart 7 222321--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Macquarie Island 13 21344322
Casey 31 56542333
Mawson 27 45333445
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 23 na
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 15 Quiet to Active.
17 Oct 15 Quiet to Active.
18 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours in the Australian region. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to reach Active levels and at times even minor storm levels over
the next two days as the solar wind is influenced by a negative
polarity coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Poor Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
17 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
18 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
17 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 15 October
and is current for 15-16 Oct. Improved MUFs as the ionosphere
slowly replenishes from the severe storm associated with the
09 Oct CME. Conditions for HF radio propagation were depressed
throughout the Australian region during the early hours of 14
Oct UT. Real time T indices decreased to -53 at some low latitude
locations. As the day progressed, support for radio wave propagation
recovered at most mid-latitude stations. Ionospheric recovery
after recent sever geomagnetic storm is expected to continue
over the next three days. MUFs are expected to remain degraded
during the recovery phase in response to the forecasted Active
conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: na
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: na
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: na
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: na
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 212000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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