[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 October 16 issued 2349 UT on 14 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 15 10:49:31 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Low levels for the UT day,
14 Oct and is expected to be mostly Low over the next 3 days.
Gong H-Alpha imagery observed an erupting solar filament after
1200UT that appears to have triggered a CME observed in LASCO
imagery starting from 1600UT. Further analysis will be provided
upon completion of the analysis in tomorrow's report. The solar
wind speed stayed ~ 400 Km/s. The north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) was southward until 08UT after which Bz has been mostly
northward. Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected over the next
three days due to the influence of negative polarity coronal
holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 22322211
Cocos Island 5 31221201
Darwin 7 22321122
Townsville 8 22332212
Learmonth 9 32332212
Alice Springs 8 -3332111
Norfolk Island 5 21221121
Culgoora 7 22222222
Camden 7 22322211
Canberra 5 22322100
Launceston 10 32333211
Hobart 7 22332210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Macquarie Island 17 43543200
Casey 16 44332233
Mawson 25 65422313
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 44 2355 6565
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 15 Active
16 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 39 was issued on 13 October
and is current for 14-15 Oct. Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed
over the last 24 hours, with Active to Minor Storm periods observed
at Antarctic stations early UT day due to sustained southward
Bz. Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach Active levels and
at times even minor storm levels over the next three days as
the solar wind is influenced by some coronal holes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Poor Poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Poor Poor Poor
16 Oct Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
17 Oct Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 55% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct -15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
16 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
17 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Strong degradations in HF conditions observed during
the UT day 14 Oct. Sporadic E noted throughout the Australian
region. Brisbane, Sydney and Canberra showed blanketing, particularly
in the local night early morning hours. Noted strong spread F
conditions at Hobart. Same conditions may persist for the next
24 hours with a slight recovery.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: -13 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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