[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 October 16 issued 2331 UT on 13 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 14 10:31:46 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: The solar activity remained at Low levels for the UT
day, 13 Oct. The three days outlook is for Very Low solar activity
with a chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery during the last
24 hours. Solar wind parameters become more disturbed after 0500UT,
solar wind speed increased to 450Km/s and Bt reached 23 nT ~2100UT.
At the same time, the southward component of Bz underwent a pronounced
sustained southward period of-18 nT. At the time of this report
issue, Bz start to show a decline towards nominal conditions,
however solar wind parameters may remain slightly enhanced under
the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole over the next
three days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 12/1700UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 21 32345442
Cocos Island 15 22323352
Darwin 17 32344341
Townsville 24 4334534-
Learmonth 26 32355353
Alice Springs 22 32345---
Norfolk Island 18 32335432
Culgoora 15 22343342
Camden 21 32345442
Canberra 20 22345442
Launceston 36 33456552
Hobart 27 22346542
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Macquarie Island 93 22556973
Casey 20 34534232
Mawson 37 34545652
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 36
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
15 Oct 20 Active
16 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 39 was issued on 13 October
and is current for 14-15 Oct. Geomagnetic activity was mostly
at Unsettled to Minor storm levels, and briefly reached Major
storm levels at Hobart station at 1200 UT. The Australian region
Dst index dipped to a low of -100 nT at 1200 UT. These fluctuations
in geomagnetic conditions are associated with a pronounced sustained
southward Bz period in excess of -18 nT. The two days outlook
(14-15 Oct) is for the geomagnetic activity to reach minor storm
levels and at times even reach major storm levels associated
with the persisting sustained southward Bz and solar wind speeds
from a coronal hole. There is a chance that aurora may be visible
on the local nights of 14-15 Oct from Tasmania and some parts
of Victoria, Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be normal to fair today, 14 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly value MUFs to moderate depressions
were observed in the Australian region during the UT day,13 Oct.
MUFs depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be observed
in the Australian/NZ regions for the next two days. Then a gradual
return to the predicted MUFs on day three, 16 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 319000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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