[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 10 10:30:24 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
A filament lift-off from the northeast quadrant and a partial
halo observed in LASCO imagery are under analysis. Solar activity
is expected to be low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
has drifted down from ~400 to ~370 km/s. The IMF total strength
peaked rose from 4 to 7 nT. The Bz component varied between +/-5
nT, staying mostly southward during 00-16 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Cocos Island 3 11012120
Darwin 4 11112112
Townsville 4 11112112
Learmonth 4 11013120
Alice Springs 4 10113111
Norfolk Island 1 10001010
Gingin 4 10113120
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 2 00112011
Launceston 6 11223112
Hobart 4 01113111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 6 01134200
Casey 6 23211122
Mawson 17 52212352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2422 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian
region on 9-Oct, with a brief unsettled period from 12-15 UT.
Brief active to storm-level periods were observed in the Antarctic.
Some unsettled periods are possible over the next 3 days due
to increased IMF strength and solar wind proton density.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian region on 9-Oct, with daytime enhancements in
equatorial regions. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted
values for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.1E+08 (normal fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 379000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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