[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 October 16 issued 2335 UT on 09 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 10 10:35:38 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT *** CORRECTION ***
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
A filament lift-off from the northeast quadrant and a partial
halo observed in LASCO imagery are under analysis. Solar activity
is expected to be low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
has drifted down from ~400 to ~370 km/s. The IMF total strength
peaked rose from 4 to 7 nT. The Bz component varied between +/-5
nT, staying mostly southward during 00-16 UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Cocos Island 3 11012120
Darwin 4 11112112
Townsville 4 11112112
Learmonth 4 11013120
Alice Springs 4 10113111
Norfolk Island 1 10001010
Gingin 4 10113120
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 2 00112011
Launceston 6 11223112
Hobart 4 01113111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 6 01134200
Casey 6 23211122
Mawson 17 52212352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2422 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian
region on 9-Oct, with a brief unsettled period from 12-15 UT.
Brief active to storm-level periods were observed in the Antarctic.
Some unsettled periods are possible over the next 3 days due
to increased IMF strength and solar wind proton density.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian region on 9-Oct, with daytime enhancements in
equatorial regions. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted
values for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.1E+08 (moderate fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 379000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list