[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 08 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 9 10:30:20 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 104/53 104/53 104/53
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected
to be low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed peaked around
470 km/s, currently around 400 km/s. The IMF total strength peaked
around 6 nT, currently 4 nT. The Bz component varied from -4
to +3 nT, with a southward bias.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 12131111
Cocos Island 2 11111110
Darwin 4 12121112
Townsville 5 12132110
Learmonth 5 12131112
Alice Springs 4 12121111
Norfolk Island 4 12131011
Culgoora 6 22221222
Gingin 7 22131222
Camden 5 12131111
Canberra 4 12131011
Launceston 7 23232111
Hobart 5 12132111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Macquarie Island 10 12153110
Casey 9 24331111
Mawson 24 34332246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2110 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 5 Quiet
10 Oct 5 Quiet
11 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian
region on 8-Oct, with a brief unsettled period from 09-12 UT.
Brief active to storm-level periods were observed in the Antarctic.
Quiet conditions are expected to prevail in Australia for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian region on 8-Oct, with some enhancements in the
north and equatorial regions. Moderate depressions observed in
some locations 17-19 UT. MUFs are expected to be near monthly
predicted values for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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