[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 07 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 8 10:30:38 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 106/55 104/53 104/53
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected
to be very low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed peaked
around 480 km/s, currently around 440 km/s. The IMF total strength
peaked around 6 nT, currently 5 nT. The Bz component varied from
-4 to +5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11111221
Cocos Island 2 11010210
Darwin 3 11111211
Townsville 4 11111221
Learmonth 4 11111221
Alice Springs 4 12111211
Norfolk Island 2 11101111
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 5 11102321
Camden 4 12101221
Canberra 2 11001210
Launceston 7 22212321
Hobart 5 12102320
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 11001310
Casey 10 34321212
Mawson 15 32112354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2110 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 5 Quiet
09 Oct 5 Quiet
10 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian region
on 7-Oct, with brief active to minor storm periods observed in
the Antarctic. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail in Australia
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions were observed during local
day in northern Australia on 7-Oct. MUFs were near predicted
monthly values otherwise. MUFs are expected to be near monthly
predicted values for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 379000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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