[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 7 10:30:39 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 102/50 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected
to be low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed continued
to decline, from 480 km/s to around 450 km/s currently. The IMF
total strength peaked around 7 nT, currently 3 nT. The Bz component
varied between +/-4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 12200221
Cocos Island 2 01100221
Darwin 4 12100311
Townsville 5 22200222
Learmonth 5 22200321
Alice Springs 5 11200322
Norfolk Island 2 21100111
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 3 22100220
Camden 4 12200222
Canberra 2 11100211
Launceston 6 22201322
Hobart 4 12200222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 11000311
Casey 10 34310222
Mawson 14 23211353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 4432 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 5 Quiet
08 Oct 5 Quiet
09 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian region
on 6-Oct, with brief active to minor storm periods observed in
the Antarctic. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail in Australia
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
08 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
the Australian region on 6-Oct. Similar conditions are likely
on 7-Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 303000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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