[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 05 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 6 10:30:20 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 99/46 100/48 102/50
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
A faint CME observed in SOHO imagery is not Earth-directed. Solar
activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days. The solar
wind speed peaked around 570 km/s declining to 460 km/s currently.
The IMF total strength also had a downward trend, from 5 nT to
around 3 nT currently. The Bz component spent much of the period
00-14 UT southward, dipping to around -5 nT, varying between
+/-3 nT subsequently.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 22332211
Cocos Island 5 21212211
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 8 22332212
Learmonth 8 22232312
Alice Springs 8 22332211
Norfolk Island 7 22331111
Culgoora 7 2222222-
Gingin 8 22222322
Camden 8 22332211
Canberra 5 22222111
Launceston 12 33333222
Hobart 8 22332211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Macquarie Island 17 33453311
Casey 12 34332222
Mawson 36 56433336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 24 3534 5233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Oct 5 Quiet
08 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet across the Australian
region, with unsettled conditions 06-12 UT due to southward IMF
Bz. Some storm-level periods observed in the Antarctic. Quiet
conditions are expected in Australia for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
07 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
07 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
the Australian region on 5-Oct. Similar conditions are likely
on 6-Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 530 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 309000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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