[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 04 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 5 10:30:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
A CME observed in SOHO and STEREO imagery is not Earth-directed.
Solar activity is likely to remain very low over the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed remained mostly above 500 km/s, peaking
~~600 km/s, currently ~530 km/s. The total IMF strength peaked
around 10 nT, currently 5 nT. The BZ component was mostly southward
0-12 UT, dipping to around -7 nT. Since then Bz has varied -6
to +9 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet to Minor
storm
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 14 23244232
Cocos Island 9 22133232
Darwin 14 23244232
Townsville 15 23244233
Learmonth 18 23155232
Alice Springs 14 23244232
Norfolk Island 10 23233222
Gingin 20 32155242
Camden 13 23244222
Canberra 11 23243222
Launceston 20 24355222
Hobart 15 23254222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
Macquarie Island 32 35565222
Casey 15 33334233
Mawson 65 77454365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 11 2431 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 18 Unsettled to Active
06 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: A long period of southward IMF Bz produced active to
minor storm conditions across Australia on 4-Oct from 09-15 UT,
with mostly quiet to unsettled conditions outside that period.
Storm level conditions were observed for much of the UT day at
high latitudes. Conditions in the Australian region are expected
to be quiet to unsettled on 5-6 Oct and quiet on 7-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
06 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed on 4-Oct at high
latitudes throughout the UT day, due to increased geomagnetic
disturbance.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 34
Nov 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF nighttime depressions were observed
across the Australian region on 4-Oct. Similar conditions are
likely on 5-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 322000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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