[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 01 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 2 10:30:40 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 1 October, with no notable flares. There are no numbered
sunspot region on the visible solar disk. The three day outlook
(2-4 October) is for very low solar activity with very weak chance
of C-class flares. A disappearing solar filament,approximately
39 degrees long, was observed on the northeast quadrant (N19E09
- N31E46) beginning from 01/0133 UT and ending near 01/0302 UT.
This event seems to have triggered a CME, beginning at 01/0248
UT in the LASCO coronagraph imagery. Information on the impact
of this CME at Earth, if any, will be provided upon completion
of the model runs. The solar wind speeds during the past 24 hours
had continued to decline as coronal hole effects wane, changing
from ~650 km/s at the beginning of the UT day to 550 km/s by
01/2300 UT. The north-south component of the Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT, and was weakly southwards
for most parts of the UT day. Bt was steady near 5 nT at most
times, except for some weak fluctuation between 01/1700 UT and
01/1900 UT . The two day outlook (2 -3 October) is for the solar
winds to continue to trend towards ambient levels as the coronal
effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 23223232
Cocos Island 7 13212231
Darwin 8 13222232
Townsville 11 23233232
Learmonth 10 23223232
Alice Springs 9 23222232
Norfolk Island 9 23232222
Gingin 11 23223332
Camden 10 13233232
Canberra 7 13222221
Launceston 12 24233232
Hobart 10 13233231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
Macquarie Island 19 23354341
Casey 16 44332323
Mawson 65 35543586
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18 4433 2342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 16 Active
03 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity over the Australian region
were mostly at unsettled to active levels during the UT day 1
October, and only briefly reached minor storm levels near 01/0400
UT. The Australian region Dst index dipped to a low of -65 nT
at near 01/0430 UT. These fluctuations in geomagnetic conditions
are associated with moderately strong solar wind speeds in excess
of 500 km/s emanating from a large positive polarity coronal
hole. The two day outlook (2-3 October) is for the geomagnetic
activity to be mostly between unsettled and active levels as
the coronal hole effects continue to wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
03 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were depressed over most regions, with
strongest degradations in the mid and high latitudes regions.
Similar HF conditions are expected today, 2 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 34
Nov 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct 0 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Oct 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were strongly depressed over most Australian
regions throughout the UT day 1 October. The HF depression even
extended into the equatorial regions. These depression are associated
with the observed disturbed geomagnetic conditions driven by
a very large positive polarity coronal hole. Slightly improved
MUFs, though still near depressed levels compared to monthly
predicted values, are expected for the next two days (2-3 October)
as the ionosphere slowly replenishes from the aftermath of series
of substorms associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:37%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 665 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 824000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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