[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 3 10:30:22 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 2 October, with no notable flares. The three day outlook
(3-5 October) is for very low solar activity with weak chance
of C-class flares. The 01 October CME associated with a ~39 degrees
long disappearing filament is unlikely have any impact at earth.
The solar wind speeds during the past 24 hours had continued
to decline as the coronal hole effects wane, changing from ~550 km/s
at the beginning of the UT day to 490 km/s by 02/2300 UT. The
north-south component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT, and was weakly southwards for
most parts of the UT day. Bt was steady between 4 and 7 nT during
the UT day. The two day outlook (3 -4 October) is for the solar
winds to continue to trend towards ambient levels as the coronal
effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 22233232
Cocos Island 10 21123342
Darwin 10 22223233
Townsville 11 22233233
Learmonth 12 22233342
Alice Springs 10 22233232
Norfolk Island 8 22223132
Gingin 14 22234342
Camden 12 22333233
Canberra 8 11223232
Launceston 14 23333243
Hobart 13 22333243
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Macquarie Island 21 22346233
Casey 23 34523353
Mawson 43 45443375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 12 Unsettled
04 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity over the Australian region
were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the UT day 2
October. These unsettled geomagnetic conditions were due to moderately
strong solar wind speeds in excess of 500 km/s emanating from
a large positive polarity coronal hole. The two day outlook (3-4
October) is for the geomagnetic activity to be mostly near quiet
to unsettled levels and occasionally could reach active levels
as the coronal hole effects continue to weaken.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
04 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were depressed over most regions, with
strongest degradations in the mid and high latitudes regions.
Similar HF conditions are expected today, 3 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 34
Nov 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 0 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Oct 0 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
05 Oct 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 2 October
and is current for 2-3 Oct. Observed MUF's were strongly depressed
over most Australian regions throughout the UT day 2 October,
except on the day side for the equatorial Australian regions.
These depression are the aftermaths of substorms driven by the
very large positive polarity coronal hole. Slightly improved
MUFs, though still near depressed levels compared to monthly
predicted values, are expected for the next two days (3-4 October)
as the ionosphere slowly replenishes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+06 est.
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04 est.
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.9E+09 est.
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6 est.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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