[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 September 16 issued 2338 UT on 30 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 1 09:38:02 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 30 September, with no notable flares. The only active sunspot
region (Region 2597) will soon rotate to the rearward side of
the sun. Thus, the three day outlook (1-3 October) is for very
low solar activity with only slight chance of C-class flares.
A CME was observed around 29/2024 in available coronagraph imagery.
Our preliminary investigation indicates that this CME could be
triggered from active Region 2597. Thus based on location of
CME source region (S14W78), it is unlikely that this CME will
impact Earth. Further confirmation will be provided upon completion
of the model runs. The solar wind speeds during the past 24 hours
had exhibited a gradual declining trend, changing from ~800 km/s
at the beginning of the UT day to 600 km/s by 30/2300 UT. This
is suggestive of the beginning of the waning effects of the coronal
hole. The north-south component of the Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) fluctuated between -5 and +5 nT, and was weakly southwards
since 30/1530 UT. Bt was steady near 5 nT. The two day outlook
(1 -2 October) is for the solar winds to continue to trend towards
lower speeds as the coronal effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 13 22343332
Darwin 11 22332332
Townsville 13 22343332
Learmonth 15 22343342
Alice Springs 12 22342332
Norfolk Island 9 22332231
Gingin 17 32343442
Camden 14 32343332
Canberra 10 22332331
Launceston 18 33443342
Hobart 14 32343332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
Macquarie Island 22 23454441
Casey 36 44443373
Mawson 47 45543475
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 51 (Unsettled)
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 38 4555 4643
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 20 Active
02 Oct 16 Active
03 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 29 September
and is current for 29 Sep to 1 Oct. The geomagnetic activity
over the Australian region were mostly at unsettled to active
levels during the UT day 30 September. These fluctuations in
geomagnetic conditions are associated with very strong solar
wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s emanating from a large positive
polarity coronal hole. The two day outlook (1-2 October) is for
the geomagnetic activity to be mostly between unsettled and active
levels, but occasionally could reach minor storm levels, as the
coronal hole effects begins to wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were near predicted monthly values over
the equatorial regions and strongly depressed in the mid and
high latitudes regions. Similar HF conditions are expected today,
1 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 0 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
02 Oct 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 29 September
and is current for 29 Sep to 1 Oct. Observed MUF's were strongly
depressed over most Australian regions throughout the UT day
30 September except on the day side for the equatorial Australian
regions. These depression are associated with the observed disturbed
geomagnetic conditions driven by a very large positive polarity
coronal hole. Slightly improved MUFs, though still near depressed
levels compared to monthly predicted values, are expected for
the next two days (1-2 October) as the ionosphere gradually recovers
from the aftermath of storms associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 702 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 909000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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