[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 18 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 19 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flux remains at nominal level with very
low solar activity. An active prominence was observed on the
West limb. There are currently two numbered sunspot regions,
both small in extent and with simple magnetic structure. Solar
wind speed declined from 400 to 320 km/s over the UT day. The
IMF Bz component was mostly neutral. The anticipated moderate
coronal hole wind stream has not yet eventuated but is expected
early on the UT day 19 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 10000101
Cocos Island 1 11000100
Darwin 0 10000001
Townsville 1 11000111
Learmonth 1 20000101
Alice Springs 1 10000101
Norfolk Island 1 10000011
Gingin 2 11000201
Camden 1 11000110
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11010110
Hobart 0 10000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 11000100
Casey 9 34311211
Mawson 9 33111323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet with Unsettled
periods at high latitudes. An anticipated coronal hole wind stream
onset is expected early on day one, bringing Unsettled conditions
with possible active intervals. Recurrence suggests the elevated
conditions could persist into day two with conditions declining
by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours ranging
from notable depressions to near predicted monthly values. Significant
depressions observed South Atlantic region during local night.
Moderate depressions in the Australasian region at low latitudes
mainly in daylight hours. Variable disturbance possible at high
latitudes next three days due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Nov 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on 18 November
and is current for 19 Nov only. Depressed HF conditions observed
local daylight hours over the Northern Australian region for
the UT day, 18 November. Expect variable MUF depressions/enhancements
at low latitudes due to low solar EUV radiation over the next
three UT days, 19-21 November. Expect possible minor degradations
in HF communications mainly at high latitudes 19-20 November
due to weak geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 41300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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