[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 20 10:30:37 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 78/17 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 19 November.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days
with a slight chance of C-class flares. Udaipur H-alpha imagery
showed an erupting prominence on the east limb at ~19/0700UT.
SDO AIA 304 imagery showed erupting material on the east limb
at ~19/0944UT. Both eruptions appear to be associated with CMEs
observed via C2 imagery at ~19/0736UT and ~19/1012UT. Note these
CMEs are not Earthward directed. No Earthward directed CMEs expected
based on available C2 imagery ending at 19/1900UT. Solar wind
speed ranged between 350 and 300 km/s and is currently ~330km/s.
The IMF Bz component was predominantly positive during the last
24 hours varying between +6/-4nT. The Btotal field mostly varying
between 3-7nT. Expect the solar wind to remain at nominal levels
today, 20 November, and most of the next UT day. Note the Phi
angle has switched from the negative sector to the positive sector
and the Btotal field dropped to 1-2 nT at ~2200UT. The recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole has decreased in size compared
to last rotation and is likely to be geoeffective late on the
UT day, 21 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 10001111
Cocos Island 1 00000111
Darwin 1 10100111
Townsville 2 11101111
Learmonth 1 10001111
Alice Springs 1 00001111
Norfolk Island 1 10000111
Gingin 1 00001111
Camden 1 10001111
Canberra 0 00000100
Launceston 2 10101211
Hobart 1 00001200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00001100
Casey 8 23322121
Mawson 8 11212134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 2000 0200
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Nov 12 Unsettled
22 Nov 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 51 was issued on 19 November
and is current for 21-22 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
for the UT day, 19 November. Expect the geomagnetic conditions
to be mostly Quiet for 20 November and mostly Quiet to Unsettled
on 21 November. Late on 21 November expect an increase in geomagnetic
activity in the Australian region to Active conditions with isolated
periods of Minor Storm levels, particularly at higher latitudes
due to the anticipated coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs to mild depressions globally with
pockets of depressions in the southern hemisphere particularly
during local day light hours. Expect these conditions to prevail
over the next two days with a further depressions and minor degradation
in HF communications possible on 22 November due to ionospheric
storming
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 19 November
and is current for 22 Nov only. Depressed HF conditions observed
over the Northern Australian region during local day light hours
and near predicted MUFs for the local night for the UT day, 19
November. The Southern Australian region observed near predicted
MUFs over the UT day. Expect these conditions to prevail 20-21
November. Expect possible minor degradations in HF communications
on 22 November due to geomagnetic activity. Isolated cases of
sporadic E were noted throughout the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 15600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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