[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 17 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 18 10:30:44 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 17 November.
Expect Very Low solar activity for the next three days. SOHO
LASCO C2 imagery shows no earthward directed CMEs based on available
imagery ending at 17/1848 UT. Solar wind speed fluctuated between
380km/s and 430 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component
of the IMF fluctuated between +/-4nT during this period, averaging
positive for most of the UT day. The total B field ranged from
2-5nT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain around 400km/s
until midday UT day 18 November when it is expected to elevate
due to the influence of a coronal hole associated with a high
speed solar wind stream. The coronal hole effects are only expected
to last for approximately 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Cocos Island 1 11000110
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 2 11100111
Learmonth 3 11111111
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Norfolk Island 1 01000011
Gingin 2 11101111
Camden 2 11100111
Canberra 0 00000001
Launceston 2 11100112
Hobart 2 11100111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 01100111
Casey 11 34421112
Mawson 10 32121243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0110 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet for the UT day, 17
November. Expect the geomagnetic conditions to remain Quiet for
the first half of UT day, 18 November, and increasing to Unsettled
levels with possibility of isolated periods of Active levels,
particularly at higher latitudes, later in the UT day, due to
a likely increase in solar wind speed. Expect Quiet to Unsettled
conditions to prevail over the following two UT days, 19-20 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours ranging
from notable depressions to near predicted monthly values. The
northern hemisphere currently shows mild depressions to near
predicted monthly MUFs. The southern hemisphere had depressed
MUFs mainly in daylight hours. Expect near predicted MUFs with
isolated cases of mild depressions for the UT day, 18 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov 0 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
19 Nov 0 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
20 Nov 0 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed over the Northern Australian
region for the UT day, 17 November. Depressed HF conditions observed
for the Southern Australian region over daylight hours and near
predicted MUFs observed during local nighttime hours. Expect
these conditions to prevail over the next three UT days, 18-20
November. Expect possible minor degradations in HF communications
on 19 November due to weak geomagnetic activity. Isolated cases
of sporadic E were noted throughout the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 36300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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