[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 16 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 17 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 16 November.
Expect Very Low solar activity for the next three days. SOHO
LASCO C2 imagery shows no earthward directed CMEs based on available
imagery ending at 16/1924UT. Solar wind speed decreased from
500km/s to near 400km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component
of the IMF fluctuated between -4nT to 3nT during this period,
averaging positive for most of the UT day until 16:30UT after
which it was mainly negative. The total B field ranged from 1.4-5.0nT.
Solar wind speed is expected to remain at 400km/s or below for
the UT day 17 November and part of 18 November. However, late
in the UT day 18 November expect the solar wind to increase due
to the influence of a small equatorial positive-polarity coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 1 -1100010
Darwin 2 21100012
Townsville 3 11100122
Learmonth 1 11100011
Alice Springs 1 11100011
Norfolk Island 1 11100011
Gingin 2 11100021
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 0 00000010
Hobart 3 21110012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 11010000
Casey 12 34430122
Mawson 20 33321164
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3202 3100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 4 Quiet
18 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Nov 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet for the UT day, 16
November. Expect the geomagnetic conditions to remain Quiet for
the UT day, 17 November and most of 18 November. Increased geomagnetic
activity is forecast for later on UT day, 18 November, due to
increasing solar wind speed from a coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
At this time expect geomagnetic activity to increase to Unsettled
levels with isolated periods of Active levels at higher latitudes.
This is likely to continue on 19 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours ranging
from notable depressions to near predicted monthly values. The
northern hemisphere currently shows mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs. The southern hemisphere had depressed MUFs mainly in daylight
hours. Expect near predicted MUFs with isolated cases of mild
depressions for the UT day, 17 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov 0 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 0 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
19 Nov 0 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed for the Australian
region over daylight hours and near predicted MUFs observed during
local nighttime hours. Expect these conditions to prevail over
the next two UT days, 17-18 November. Expect possible minor degradations
in HF communications on 19 November due to weak geomagnetic activity.
Isolated cases of sporadic E were noted throughout the Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 522 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 91800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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