[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 16 issued 2333 UT on 26 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Fri May 27 09:33:43 EST 2016

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May:  92/37

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 May             28 May             29 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              90/34

COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was Very Low during 26 May 
UT. Active Regions 2546 and 2548 produced two C1-class flares 
peaking at 1351 and 1336 UT, respectively. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. Expect Very 
Low to Low solar activity due to a chance for C-class flares 
which may be produced by both AR 2546 and AR 2548. The solar 
wind speed varied in the range 330-380 km/s. The magnitude of 
the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied in the range 3-5 
nT and its component Bz was fluctuating between about -2 nT and 
+4 nT. For the next 24 hours expect the solar wind speed to increase 
due to a coronal hole effect.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00100001
      Cocos Island         1   00110001
      Darwin               2   11110101
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            0   00100001
      Alice Springs        0   00100000
      Norfolk Island       1   10000011
      Gingin               0   00000001
      Camden               1   11100001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Melbourne            0   00000001
      Launceston           0   00000001
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   01100011
      Mawson               5   10100124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1101 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 May     5    Quiet
28 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Globally, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during 26 
May UT. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region are expected 
to be mostly Quiet on 27 May UT with a chance of Unsettled period. 
During 28-29 May UT geomagnetic conditions will be mostly Quiet 
to Unsettled and can probably reach Active levels due to coronal 
hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
28 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere 
during the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 May    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      30
May      47
Jun      46

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 May    25    Depressed 10 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
28 May    25    Depressed 10 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
29 May    25    Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 26 May 
and is current for 26-28 May. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation 
were mildly depressed throughout the Australian region and near 
predicted monthly values in the Antarctic region during 26 May 
UT. Conditions are expected to remain mildly depressed throughout 
most of the Australian region during the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+5
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+4
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.8E+7 (normal fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    56600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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